Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Forcasting the weather and herding the cats




   If I am fortunate to come back to earth in a second life, I hope I am able to come back as a meteorologist, a weatherman. I have always enjoyed trying to forecast the weather, matching my skills with the men and women on the various TV news channels. I know they have computers and other scientific means to help them forecast the weather, but sometimes I wonder if having a plain, old, ordinary window on the world is all that is really needed.

   For many, weather is important in daily life. Storms impact travel, farming, vacations, golf games and often affect attitudes and behavior. Weather can determine where we choose to live. There is a reason why Florida is so popular.

   Now before I go any farther, I need to acknowledge the hardship and devastation recently experienced along the New Jersey shore and New York City area. I have lived in both areas and to view what happened is heartbreaking. Some things will never be the same.

   The weather does provide a topic to talk about when a conversations are exhausted. It gives us something to be joyful about, like a bright warm sunny day or to the contrary, something to complain about.

   A pending forecast can give us an excuse to do something, like take a day off from work if it is going to be sunny and warm or to avoid doing something we really didn't want to do anyhow. A bit of snow today? I had better cancel my dentist appointment. Could be dangerous travel.

   It appears, however, that in recent years weather forecasting has taken on a bit of showmanship. Colorful charts, graphs, maps and videos now add a new and exciting dimension to the forecast. Pictures of the earth from miles above its surface show swirls of clouds and storms as they move from place to place. That storm coming in from the Pacific Oceans looks like a real “humdinger”. Time to get to the grocery store and then 'hunker down.'

  But again, let me add that the recent forecast of hurricane Sandy was right on target and as the area  braces for another storm this week, there is a new respect for Mother Nature and what the weather forecasters do.

   Back in the checkout line at the store, I overheard a discussion between two people, a bit older than I am. They were talking about the old days and the storms 'way back when.' “Storms today just aren't like they use to be.”

   Actually I think they are getting worse. I do believe in global warming!.

   There are some 'givens' about the weather. We will have weather every day albeit rain or sun, wind or clouds. Even with all the computers and other tools of the trade, predicting the weather is not a perfect science and sometimes the storms and weather seem to have minds of their own..

   A forecast late last winter called for a light amount of snow, somewhere in the three to four inch range. But to the surprise of many, that light dusting turned out to be fourteen inches. Honey! Better call the plow guy.

   What I believe is that forecasting the weather can often be like herding a bunch of cats. You know what you want them to do, but sometimes they have a mind of their own and while they eventually may end up doing what you wanted, it may have taken a different route to get them there.

   Weather forecasting sometimes has similar results, not exactly what you expected.
But we like that because if it goes badly, except for the major storms, we have someone to blame. Come on Steve McKay. Get it right? I had outdoor plans for today and now it's raining!

    Yes, the sun is out today......and there goes that pesky bunch of neighborhood cats racing across my back yard again but I sure hope the Nor'easter predicted for later this week decides to blow out to sea!!.

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