With February comes hope.............

   It seems like it has been snowing for days. The temperatures each day have been like a roller coaster ride and while there is a bit more light in the evening sky, it's still mid-winter. After basically a “flake-free” January (I am not talking about visits from friends and neighbors), the piles of snow on either side of the driveway are now getting pretty high.

   The car is covered in salt and sand. Lucky has a difficult time climbing over or finding a way around the snow banks to get to his favorite 'spots' in the yard and each day I shovel the snow drifts away from the back door. But have no fear. With the arrival of February comes hope.

   February 2 is Groundhog Day and we all know what that means. It means we will soon know just how much longer we must endure the snow and harsh cold of winter before Spring arrives. And this prediction is determined by....? Of course. It is a homely little rodent sticking his head out of a hole in the ground to look for his shadow. Now... what on earth could be more scientific than that? (I wonder if the groundhog is male or female and would that make a difference?)

   Like many other events in history, the early beginnings of Groundhog Day are not without some debate and controversy. 

   The general belief is that the earliest recorded history of Groundhog Day dates back to February 4^th 1841 in Morgantown, Pennsylvania, however a number of other small communities scattered across the northeast claim to have recorded even earlier dates. Who doesn't like a good fight over who is credited with recording the first Groundhog Day in America!

   As tradition has it, if it is cloudy when the groundhog sticks his or her head out of its burrow, it will be an early Spring. But if the furry little creature sees its shadow cast from a bright winter sun, if he needs his sunglasses, then we have six more weeks of winter.

   Over the years and probably the result of several marketing firms, Groundhog Day has become somewhat of a celebration and what American doesn't like a good party. Folks will get up early, wrap themselves in warm clothing and head for the nearest Groundhog celebration. There will be speeches, people running about dressed in groundhog costumes, lots of food and drink, more speeches, maybe an appearance by the Governor and then the announcement will come. Did he or didn't he? And the reaction from the crowd will indicate the result.

   It has been reported that on occasion there have been as many as 40,00 people gathered in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania for the celebration. Now those are some dedicated fans.

   But this is what we know. The celebration in America was a custom believed to have begun within the Germans communities in eastern PA in the early 1800's, from a practice dating back as early as the 17^th and 18^th centuries in Europe. And like many other celebrations and holidays, its origin was based in early folklore about the weather and the changing of the seasons.

   Meteorologically  speaking, whether the groundhog sees his shadow or not, the first day of Spring is seven weeks after Groundhog Day, or on the 46-47 day following February 2nd. In simple terms, it's the middle of March and we know what the weather can be like in March.

   And how accurate are the forecasts? According to many of the celebration organizers, the little furry guy's forecast are somewhere between 75 to 90 per cent accurate. But most other official record keepers believe the accuracy to be more in the 35 to 40 per cent range. The National Climatic Data Center  has even said that the little guy has absolutely no talent for predicting the weather at all. But then, that is a response one might expect to hear from such an agency. Can you imagine if the groundhog were correct in his predictions. Can you imagine losing your job and being replaced by a groundhog?

   Monday is Groundhog Day, but I think I'll skip the celebrating, pour myself another cup of coffee before venturing out to shovel the walkway again and know that it's February, the shortest month of the year. Before long, whether Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow or not, the sun will become brighter, the temperatures warmer and the plants and flowers will emerge from beneath the ground recently covered by 3 feet of snow and it will be Springtime. With the beginning of February comes 'hope'...........and maybe even a little bit of Spring fever!